Mexico, the Dark Horse in Global Cannabis
As the U.S. cannabis convention season kicks off [think NECANN Boston in March and MJ Unpacked, NJ²], industry leaders are schmoozing it up stateside, while across the pond, European markets are bracing for a paradigm shift. As Amsterdam quietly bows out as the epicenter of EU cannabis, and Spannabis Barcelona [March 2025]³ might be the last of its kind, April’s ICBC Berlin is set to host anxious EU delegates who want to see just how close Europe is to the actual “green wave.” The question: who will dominate international cannabis once the smoke clears?
The eyes of cannabis’s rank and file have been on Germany, Portugal, Canada, and recently Zimbabwe, or Lesotho, emerging exporters that have begun shipping multi-ton consignments abroad.¹ But one country is rarely in the spotlight: Mexico. Although their Supreme Court mandated legal reform, gridlock has stalled all large-scale commercial exports. What about 2025?
Mexico’s Geopolitical Advantage
Sierra Madre cultivation site.
Border with the United States: If the U.S. ever opens federal exports, Mexico could become a cannabis transit corridor, with cross-border partnerships akin to automotive manufacturing but with cannabis.²
LATAM Activation: Colombia is already shipping flower to Germany,³ Argentina wants a piece of that global export pie, and Mexico, sitting at the intersection of North and Latin America, could broker the new trade routes. Imagine shipping containers loaded in Guadalajara, shuttled by rail to the ports of Veracruz for transatlantic voyages. With costs that might undercut Canadian production by 30–40%, Mexico presents a compelling proposition.⁴
Sun shades protect crops near the equator.
Every ledger jockey says, “We see a potential $1.5 billion annual export opportunity if regulatory structures align”. But, c'mon, let’s be real: cultural, political, and logistical curveballs not only persist throughout the region; they thrive.
Europe’s Growing Appetite
The two worst coffeeshops in Amsterdam.
Germany’s import surge [70,000 kg in 202⁴⁶] could soon surpass 100,000 kg if partial rec hits full stride. Meanwhile, the UK soared from 7,762 kg imports in 2022 to nearly 30,000 kg by late 2023.⁷ That’s a combined 100,000+ kg market just between these two countries. If Mexico organizes stable EU-GMP-certified operations, it could challenge Colombia and even African outdoor crops on price.
The U.S. Factor: Restriction or Reinvention
Portugal, Germany, & France are in play.
Federal prohibition locks U.S. cultivators out of global export channels. But, if rescheduling or an act of Congress changes that, could the U.S. consider importing from Mexico for its own CPG cannabis products? Possibly. Under a NAFTA-like cannabis arrangement? Possibly.
Taxes & Tariffs: Expect friction from domestic growers in states like California or Oregon who definitely don’t want cheaper Mexican flower flooding the market. Yet the possibility remains, and Mexico stands ready to roll.
Tight Seals & Loose Ends: The Logistics Challenge
Quality & the global logistics quandry.
Stacks of organized, vacuum-sealed, compliance-tagged, mid-high-grade work packs of flower, loaded into open-head drums at an EU GMP-compliant facility near Monterrey, traveling by refrigerated truck to cross an official border checkpoint. Inspectors confirm THC content, pesticide levels, and packaging labels. One slip, a mislabeled shipment, a breach of the seal, and the shipment gets seized. Uber-stressful but professional logistics providers navigate this daily for pharmaceuticals. If Mexico invests in the same track-and-trace technology used for legitimate medication exports, cross-border cannabis shipments could become as routine in North America as the bills of lading seen at EU ports.
The Monkey Wrench
Nature hike.
What if Mexico’s Congress fails to pass enabling legislation? That “$1.5 Billion dream” fizzles. Or what if the U.S. legalizes federal cannabis but imposes hefty tariffs to protect domestic farmers? Mexico might still remain sidelined. But. If everything aligns, a trifecta emerges: Colombian raw material processed in Mexico, then exported to a rescheduled U.S. market or directly to Europe. Shipping times shrink compared to crossing the Atlantic from Portugal or Canada. Price tags drop. The industry gets shaken up. Again.
Mexico, the sleeping giant, could awaken and rewrite global cannabis routes. As 2025 unfolds, keep an eye on legislative updates, cross-border pilot programs, and the reaction of big U.S. multi-state operators who might eye Mexico for supply synergies.
Jarod Noble Harvey is a cannabis consultant specializing in Product UX, Manufacturing Operations, Terpenes, and Commercial Strategy. Connect with him on Medium, X/Twitter, and LinkedIn.
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